With the “dowry” of the regularization of tolls over 5 years, the clear upward trend in traffic and income compared to previous years and of course, with a view to the future, eventual extensions of the motorway, potential investors are invited to to “weigh” the data, among many other financial parameters (cost of money, interest rates, cost of road maintenance, etc.) and to “weigh” their participation in the final phase of Attica’s new 25-year concession Road, a tender “directed” by TAIPED, and of course, the amount of its economic contribution.
Regardless of the time of the tenders (end of May, July or later) and due to the electoral contests, the 8 plaintiffs or consortia claiming the contract, to whom the final draft of the contract was addressed, will be invited in the final stretch. to give the financial prices that they estimate they “click” with the current economic reality, interest rates, tolls and of course the future projections they have made.
Tolls and the “trump card” of readjustment
Of course, the issue of tariff policy continues to be a key issue, although it is remembered, as highlighted by insider.gr since last year, that finally with a political “bullet” the price of tolls was set at 2.5 euros per crossing, from 2.8 euros today, without different time zones and billing rates finally coming into force. The contract provides for the review of the price of the toll at the end of the first 5 years (and every 5 years), depending on the evolution of automobile traffic on the road axis. In other words, it is expected that the investor may submit a request for price review whenever it is justified by the course of circulation. Today, Attiki Odos is a road with serious traffic problems at some points along the way, such as the section from the Avenida Kifisias junction to the Metamorfosi junction. In other words, if the road axis shows signs of congestion, then the concessionaire will have the right to increase the price, in order to stop traffic on the axis and make it operational. That is why the Concession Contract will include special indicators, etc.
Traffic and revenue are on the rise
And although the presentation of offers is expected within the next few months, circulation and revenue are already “breaking the meters”, as recently revealed by insider.gr. In the January – March 2023 quarter, average daily traffic has increased by approximately 9% compared to the corresponding period of 2019, while it increases by approximately 16% compared to the first quarter of 2022. The same information establishes that the Average daily traffic in the quarter of 2023 exceeds 240-241 thousand vehicles, compared to approximately 220-221 thousand vehicles in the first quarter of 2019 and 207 thousand vehicles in the same period of 2022. Obviously, revenues are also going up. increase. In the first 3 months of 2023, total revenue (before VAT) is close, always according to market information, to 50 million euros (+10%) compared to 2019 and +20% compared to 2022 (always at the level of the first trimester). ). It is recalled that in 2019 total revenue (before VAT) exceeded 194 million euros and in 2022 196 million euros. As noted in the financial report of both ELLAKTR and AVAX (shareholders with percentages of approximately 65% - 35%), in Attiki Odos, in the whole of 2022, vehicle crossings increased by 0.3% compared to with 2019 and 12.5% versus 2021, with traffic picking up more and more towards the end of the year.
The famous extensions
However, in a broad sense, the highway may be “endowed” with new projects in the future, with new extensions, and although there has already been a tender for the extension of L. Kymi to the national highway, amounting to 350 million euros, with contractors TERNA, AKTOR, Intrakat (pending contract signing but “involved” with appeals to the Council of Ministers by the municipalities of the regions). A few weeks ago, insider.gr revealed the plans of the consortium itself to submit a proposal for the implementation of the famous extensions from Attica Road to Vouliagmenis Street, Rafina, Lavrio (if not also to other areas) through the template of model proposals. Due to Elliniko’s great project, the construction of the famous Heliopolis tunnel has “come” to the surface, in relation to the other extensions, with studies carried out by Lamda itself. After all, shopping centers, residences, hotels, etc., even a Casino, will be built in this development, so traffic in an already congested capital will be a difficult “equation” that requires “solutions”. This is a plan that obviously cannot be considered as a fact and “blocked”, although it is said to be known by the political leadership. The new concessionaire will obviously want additional road hubs that “hook up” with the existing urban road. Of course the “use” for the promotion of the project – funding model of almost 1.5 – 2 billion euros will be provided by the government with the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport working on the solutions and the market waiting for the final decisions. . That is, if a public tender is chosen (as is the case with the expansion of L. Kymis), Concessions/PPP, if other models such as Model Proposals are left on the “table”, if the projects come out individually or in “packages” ” , etc.
the contenders
As is known, the main national infrastructure groups participate in the final phase (GEK TERNA, AKTOR Concessions, AVAX, MYTILINEOS, Kopelouzos, Intrakat in international format) but also strong foreign groups or funds that had advanced to the final phase.
It is recalled that the contract is claimed by: ABERTIS INFRAESTRUCTURAS SA, Consortium of AKTOR CONCESSIONS SA – AVAX SA – ARDIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, Consortium of BRISA – AUTO ESTRADAS de PORTUGAL SA – RUBICONE BIDCO SA, Consortium of CORE INFRASTRUCTURE FUND III SCS (VAUBAN) – DIF INFRA 6 PARTICIPACIONES BV – EGIS PROJECTS SA, Consortium of GEK TERNA SA – FS ARK HOLDCO Sarl, Consortium of MACQUARIE ASSET MANAGEMENT MOTORWAY HOLDINGS Sarl – FINCOP INFRASTRUCTURE LTD, Consortium of VINCI HIGHWAYS SAS – VINCI CONCESSIONS SAS – MYTILINEOS SA – MOBI LITY PARTNER SAS , INC SpA (FININC GROUP).
In the Portuguese BRISA, INTRAKAT (with a 30% stake) is expected to “click” as the CEO of the listed company, Al. Exarco. In addition, there is no shortage of scenarios for the withdrawal of foreign groups (for example, the French Ardian from the AKTOR Concessions – AVAX joint venture) which, however, are not officially confirmed and new ferments – collaborations between the groups. However, market sources do not rule out that we will soon have news about the French although, if their withdrawal is confirmed, there are probably other interested parties (foreign funds) to work with the Greek companies who know the concession very well from the inside. .