Beware of dog bites

By | May 15, 2023

By Apostolos Manthos

The market is now entering the last five meetings left for the first electoral contest and most investors have already voted since last week to “abstain” from any serious investment move, thus awaiting first the data that will be thrown at the polls in the night of May 21 and beyond… we’ll see. Unexpectedly in this climate of expectation, total billing will fall below the average of the last 20 sessions, leaving not so clear marks in the sand in terms of the direction and strength of the short-term trend. From the daily chart picture so far (article was written last Thursday morning), the broad index is testing the short-term bullish “Q” channel midpoint at 1,135 to 1,130, but doesn’t agree. Mood to move sharply higher to break through the 8-year highs at around 1,141 points.

A move that, given the right positive news, can trigger a violent bullish breakout to the top of the said channel within the 1,180 to 1,200 range or up to +7% of current trading prices. On the other hand, the area defined by the lower side of the channel at 1,108 units and the support level of 1,100 units needs a lot of attention. The possible confirmed burn to the bottom of the 1,100 base will hit the short-term buyers’ camp, paving the way lower for prices within the 1,055-1,020 zone. Below that, the General Index is very likely to lose the schematic scepter of 1,000 units, causing intense sell-offs and significant changes in equity portfolio investment tactics. This, of course, could only be caused by some unpleasant political event, as the international environment does not agree with European markets receiving prices at all-time highs.

Moving on to x-ray the horsepower of the General Index we find that now only 8 companies control 50% of its movement. Coca-Cola HBC with a weight of 10.14%, Piraeus with 6.98%, Jumbo with 6.04%, Ethniki with 5.85%, Eurobank with 5.60%, Mytileneos with 5, 45%, PPC with 5.01% and OPAP with 5%. In the last upward movement of the General Index of +4.4%, the most negative surprise is that of the Mytilene share (MYTIL), where under the pressure of institutional liquidations it has lost -9.82%, giving prices within the important support zone of 25.50 to 25 euros. On the contrary, a positive impression is caused by the rise of Jumbo (BELA) to third place in the ranking, its share recording an upward movement of +13.75%, even reaching new all-time highs by trading at 22.76 euros. It should be noted that the group is going for the eighth consecutive month of rise from 13.15 euros to 22.76 euros or +73%. Coca-Cola HBC (EEE) has a short-term positive evolution of more than +11% with its share at the threshold of 30 euros and the two banks Ethniki (NTE) and Eurobank (EUROB) with their shares respectively at close range from multi-year highs. With strong bullish scrolls from its chart so far, we find Piraeus and OPAP, while the PPC action wants to cross the thorny resistance zone of 8.50 to 8.64 euros to finally see the price of the extension of social capital in the 9 euros.

The FTSE/ATHE Large Cap Index in recent sessions has broken above both the resistance zone at 2,670 points and the short-term downtrend line “L” at 2,700 points, thus freeing up space for the Bulls to make a move. possible checkmate move. to a maximum of 2,795 units. So there, if a breakout to the upside is achieved, the data will change dramatically as there is no substantial resistance in the index’s path to the 2,950-3,000 area. That is why most analysts emphasize that if the political bogeyman goes away, the market advantage is more than strong. In order to say here that the scenario in question is on the right track, the index should drop from the level of 2,670 to 2,655 units.

I close with the Banking Index, which seems facing the electoral battle that goes from wall to wall willingly and reluctantly climbing the fence of 900 units to continue towards the upper limit of resistance of 955 units. As if there was a sign on the fence “Beware of dog bites.” However, the previous maximum registered in the daily price chart is at 955 units. A safe step up without political “bites” will give investment footholds for the conquest of 1,000 units in the Banking Index as well. Here the point that needs special attention to avoid landslides is at 815 units.

* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis and investment strategy

**Republished from the Kefalio newspaper

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