The period 2023-2027 will almost certainly be the hottest ever recorded on the planet, due to the combined effect of the gases, which cause the greenhouse effect and meteorological child phenomenonthat raise the temperature, warned the UN today, Wednesday (17/5).
In addition, global temperatures are expected to soon exceed the most ambitious target of the Paris climate agreements, warns the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
“Exists 98% probability at least one of the next five years and this five-year period as a whole will be the warmest on record,” the WMO said.
The organization estimates the probability at 66% the average annual temperature on the planet’s surface will increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.
HE Paris Agreement 2015 it aims to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels between 1850 and 1900 and, if possible, to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the same levels.
record temperatures
The data released today, Wednesday (5/17), “does not mean that we will permanently exceed the limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius of the Paris Agreement, which refers to a long-term increase in temperature over many years,” stressed the General secretary. of the POM, Mr. Peter TaalasAccording to the announcement.
“However the PMO sounds the alarm announcing that the limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius will be temporarily exceeded and this will happen more and more frequently”, he stressed.
“An El Niño event is expected to develop in the coming months. Combined with human-caused climate change, it will cause global temperatures to rise to levels never before reached,” the climate expert said.
As noted, it is likely that there will be less rain this year in the Amazonhe Central Americahe Australia and Indonesia. For the Amazon in particular, scientists are increasingly concerned that a vicious cycle of warming and deforestation could transform the region from rainforest to savannah.
To leave me no illusions about her severity of the situationthe Finn insisted on the need to prepare because “the impact on health, food safety, water management and the environment will be significant.”
The El Niño phenomenon
He El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon which is generally associated with an increase in temperatures, increased drought in some parts of the world and heavy rain in others.
the last time it happened 2018-2019 and gave way to a particularly long episode of almost three years, the the girlwhich causes opposite effects and a drop in temperatures.
In early May, WMO estimated that there was a 60% chance of an El Niño event developing in late July and an 80% chance of an El Niño event developing in late September.
The general rule is that El Niño raises global temperatures the following yearits appearance, that is, in 2024 in this cycle.
Although La Niña moderates this effect, the last eight years have been the warmest on record and 2016 holds the record.
“He Average global temperatures are expected to continue to risemoving further and further away from the climate we’re used to,” said Leon Ermanson, senior scientist at Britain’s national weather service, the Met Office.
“Confidence in global average temperature forecasts is high, because the forecasts show with hindsight that all measurements are very reliable,” the WMO notes.
In 2023, global temperatures are expected to be higher than the 1991-2020 average in almost all regions, with the exception of Alaska, South Africa, South Asia and some parts of Australia, according to the OMP. Some parts of the South Pacific will likely be cooler than average.
It is noted that next November the governments are expected to meet for the UN Climate Summit Cop28where they will assess progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.
This evaluation is likely to show that the world is far from reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43% this decade, it needed to have a good chance of limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C.
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