The Computer Science Department of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki proceeded to estimate the electoral results using Artificial Intelligence and emotional analysis of political tweets.
The Political Barometer was developed in the Artificial Intelligence and Information Analysis laboratory of the Department of Informatics of the AUTH. It is a political opinion estimation software that uses the analysis of political tweets referring to political parties, which are collected and analyzed daily.
The analysis is carried out with Artificial Intelligence methods (emotional analysis of texts). These are political parties of the Hellenic Parliament for which sufficient data can be automatically collected from Twitter (in alphabetical order HELLENIC SOLUTION, KINAL, KKE, MERA25, ND, SYRIZA). The Political Barometer uses a modern political marketplace, namely Twitter (according to statements by the owner, Mr. E. Musk).
As can be seen in the results, in the estimate of intention to vote today ND receives 31.7% and SYRIZA with 26.3%, while PASOK ranks third with 8.7%. At 6% is the KKE, at 3.6% MeRA25 and at 3.3% Hellenic Solution.
As for the estimate of the intention to vote today, with a reduction in the valid ones, ND receives 36.3%, while SYRIZA 30.1%. KINAL reaches 10% and KKE reaches 6.9%, while MeRA25 is at 4.2% and Hellenic Solution at 3.7%.
The thriller with Polakis in SYRIZA outstripped the Tempi tragedy, which was quickly forgotten
As mentioned in the corresponding update, it can replace surveys and offers the following benefits:
- The analysis of public opinion is daily, with a direct response to political stimuli.
- The cost is almost zero.
- There is no serious deviation from the survey results, based on the analysis so far (May 2022-May 2023). The deviation is about 0.5-1% for small and large matches, respectively.
- Provides important political information. E.g. of the total number of tweets it seems that:
- The political leaders’ phone battle had little impact on the world of Twitter.
- The case of Polakis’s possible non-candidacy surpassed even the Tempi tragedy in resonance on Twitter.
- It soon became apparent that the political impact of the Tempe tragedy was rather temporary.
The Political Barometer is an international first. There is no other system like it whose results are freely available to everyone, every day, by consulting the Political Barometer link HERE.
Estimated voting intention today:
Estimated intention to vote today, with reference to the valid ones:
- Estimation of voting intention, with reference to the valid ones (5/13/2023)
- Estimate of voting intention today (includes unclear vote).
- Voting intention time series (estimated with polls and Twitter data)
- Political trends (estimate of voting intention only from political tweets).
- Results of the sentiment analysis of the political tweets of all parties.
- Total number of political tweets.
- Political events (peaks in the number of tweets).
- Average deviation of the Political Barometer of the surveys 5/2022-5/2023.
Twitter audiences have special features. For example, they are mostly young, they tend to be negative in their comments (commonly swearing). Some parties (eg SYRIZA) have a larger and comparatively better presence on Twitter, relative to their appeal to the general electorate. The Political Barometer, with the proper use of previous polling and machine learning methods, can successfully reduce the analysis to the general electorate (or rather the pollster) and make relevant predictions.
The Political Barometer software has been under evaluation for a year. In the absence of objective truth (results of real elections, because there were no elections in the last year), it uses as ‘objective truth’ to refer to the general electorate all the surveys of all companies up to 1 week ago. Therefore, although it uses the polls only to educate, while it uses the tweets to predict the electoral results, any criticism of the polls is also partially valid for the Political Barometer.
According to AUTH, the Political Barometer method is here to stay: the more it is fed with correct and abundant data (and the more people use social networks as a platform for political dialogue), the better it will be.
The research and development of the Political Barometer has been carried out by the Computational Politics research group (parts of AIIA.CVML) of the Artificial Intelligence and Information Analysis Laboratory (AIIA Lab) of the Department of Informatics of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki under the supervision of AUTH Professor Mr. I .Fly.
You will also give… an exit survey
Although not exactly a polling method as reported, the Political Barometer stopped publishing forecasts on May 13 and will resume publishing its forecasts once the polls close.