Erdogan’s first-round loss sees new poll
Two weeks before Turkey’s election, polls show Erdogan losing to his main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in the second round. These steps, of course, were made before the pro-Kurdish party declared its support for the official opposition leader. This fact could completely change the battle between the two leaders.
On the other hand, the Turkish president, seeing that his ratings have dropped a lot, is recovering the nationalist narrative of the Blue Homeland, escalating the tension with Greece, at a time when it had de-escalated after the help it provided to the earthquakes of 6 February. Despite this, the presidential candidates continue with their pre-election rallies. Recep Tayyip Erdogan will speak at a large pre-election rally in Ankara in the afternoon, while Kemal Kilicdaroglu will appear in Izmir.
Erdogan appears in public again
Recep Tayyip Erdogan made his first public appearance on stage after the health problem he faced, under pressure from his pre-election obligations ahead of the May 14 elections in Turkey.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been recovering at home, as doctors have advised, after collapsing live during a television interview on Tuesday night, sparking panic and an orgy of commentary about what is really happening to him. For the past three days he has been holding functions via teleconference and visited the technology exhibition at the old Istanbul airport.
#TEKNOFEST2023 | Istanbulhttps://t.co/Z5WysVWKux
— Recep Tayyip Erdogan (@RTErdogan) April 29, 2023
Erdogan sees Kilicdaroglu’s back
Looking at the polls, Kemal Kilicdaroglu leads with 49.4% to his opponent Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 47.1%. The poll in question was carried out between April 15 and 18, that is, before Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s illness, but also before the pro-Kurdish party announced its direct support and called on its voters to vote for the leader. opposition official.
According to another measurement, in the first round Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to narrowly beat Kemal Kilicdaroglu with 43% to his opponent’s 42%, followed by Muarem Ince with 8%. However, a change of course is expected in the second round, with Kilindaroglu gathering 51% and being elected president, compared to 49% for Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Finally, in the published Artibir poll, Kilicdaroglu is predicted to prevail in both rounds. Specifically, in the first round Kilinzaroglou is expected to gather 49.4% compared to 43.7% for the current Turkish president, while in the second round 53.6% is expected compared to 46.4% for Erdogan.
Observers come to Türkiye for the elections.
Meanwhile, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is sending observers to see if everything is going according to law during the electoral process. The head of the mission will be Jan Petersen, who, giving an interview to Anadolu, made it clear that his mission will be “just neutral monitoring, without an agenda.”
“We are working with the authorities, the parties and the media in Turkey, while we are also discussing the election day. We have been in Turkey for a month now with 14 experts and 28 ‘long-term’ observers all over the country where they simply supervise that everything is done under international standards.
The reason why we came so early is complex. It has to do with electoral legislation, the work that needs to be done, the situation of the media, the electoral campaigns, the candidacies… There are too many and we needed time to observe them. If there is a second election, then we will stay for a few more weeks,” Petersen said, among other things. In the elections, Türkiye will elect 600 members of Parliament. If the first electoral contest does not produce a self-sufficient result, a second one will be held on the 28th of the month with the first two parties.
Erdogan invests in nationalism
Although Greek-Turkish tension had subsided after the earthquakes on February 6, Tayyip Erdogan appears to be reinvesting in nationalism by making “Blue Homeland” a central pre-election slogan. The change in strategy of the Turkish president has taken place on the occasion of opinion polls that place him in second place behind Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
On the other hand, the debate on the expansion of the Greek territorial waters has returned to the Turkish media, with Turkish journalists commenting on Hulusi Akar’s statements that he will not accept their expansion. “Even 6.01 miles will not be acceptable,” Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said.
“We won’t even accept 6.01 miles,” says Akar.
Milliyet columnist Ozai Sentir commented: “If Greece expands its territorial waters from 6 miles to 12 miles in the Aegean, Turkey’s remaining share is 7%.” A ship traveling from Istanbul to Smyrna will have to pass through Greek territorial waters three times. Türkiye cannot accept this. These can be discussed.
» I asked Hulusi Akar about this matter and he told me that we will not accept even 6.01 miles. Not even 6.01 miles. So clear’ ‘They will land in Smyrna!’ commented journalist Metehan Demir.
The provocative pre-election spot
In the new election spot for the AKP, Tayyip Erdoğan’s party, the “Blue Homeland” doctrine once again emerges as the central electoral narrative. The TV spot shows all the Greek islands in the Eastern Aegean under Turkish occupation.
In particular, the islands of Lesvos, Chios, Samos, Kos, as well as western Thrace, appear under the Turkish crescent in a pre-election advertisement for Erdogan’s AKP party. The 108-second ad, which features the Turkish flag, was uploaded to AKP’s social media to mark “National Sovereignty Day and Children’s Day,” which is a national holiday for the neighboring country.
The anniversary was established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk when the Turkish National Assembly was founded on April 23, 1920, which is a symbol of Turkey’s national sovereignty and which was dedicated by the Turkish leader to children.
Yüreklerde Republic of 100 years sevdasıyla now asalım bayrakları. 23 Nisan Ulusal Egemenlik ve Çocuk Bayramı kutlu olsun. #şimdiasınbayrakları pic.twitter.com/ZQygxfJHb2
– AK Parti (@Akparti) April 22, 2023