Forming off the western coast of Mexico, Hurricane Roslyn has strengthened into a major Category 4 storm and is expected to make landfall this weekend, forecasts show.
Roslyn has sustained winds of 130 mph as of Saturday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“Additional strengthening is forecast today,” the hurricane center added. “Although it is possible to weaken somewhat starting tonight, Roslyn is still expected to be near or at major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on Sunday.”
Roslyn’s sustained wind speed increased 60 mph in a 24-hour period from Friday through Saturday morning, signifying rapid intensification. A storm rapidly intensifies when its maximum sustained winds increase to at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.
The main hurricane is located about 150 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Roslyn continues to track northwest at 8 mph, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. The storm is then forecast to turn toward the coast later tonight before “making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit on Sunday morning,” the hurricane center said.
Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast this afternoon and hurricane conditions are expected tonight.
The Marias Islands, an archipelago about 60 miles from the mainland, are under a hurricane warning as of Saturday morning, as are parts of the central western mainland coast from Playa Perula to El Roblito.
A hurricane warning is often issued 36 hours in advance of tropical storm force winds, and all preparations made prior to the storm’s arrival must be completed quickly.
Roslyn will bring dangerous storm surges and torrential rains to the coastal areas of southwestern and central-western Mexico during the next 48 hours.
Here are the latest rainfall projections from the hurricane center:
- Michoacán and lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches
- Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the north coast
- High coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marías and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches
- From southern Durango to western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches
“This rain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides in areas of rough terrain,” the hurricane center said.
The dangerous storm surge will also bring significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where central Roslyn will make landfall on Sunday, the hurricane center added.
“Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as Roslyn moves through the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains,” the hurricane center said. The official forecast track shows the system becoming a remnant low by Monday.
The storm is moving in a similar fashion to Hurricane Orlene, which made landfall on Oct. 3 just north of the Nayarit-Sinaloa border as a Category 1 storm before dissipating inland. Orlene had strengthened into a Category 4 storm over open water the day before.