by For nearly a decade, the NFC South has been something of a cunning giant. Since the 2015 season, three different clubs (Panthers, Falcons, and Buccaneers) have made it to the Super Bowl and the other (Saints) has made it all the way to the NFC Championship in that stretch. In that same period, the NFC South has seen division winners break double-digit records. In fact, the NFC South winner has averaged 12.5 wins per season since 2015.
That is likely to change in 2022. With just four weeks left in the regular season, every team within the NFC South is under .500. While none of these clubs have been hyper-competitive this season, they are all within two games of each other in the loss column, which means there is hope that each team will possibly make a late push and win it. I mean, someone has to win this division, right?
Below, we’ll detail the path remaining for each member of the NFC South, highlight the tiebreakers that exist starting in Week 14, and ultimately make our prediction for how we see this ultimately shake up.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
NFC South standings entering Week 15
|
1. Buccaneers |
6-7 |
3-1 |
-300 |
|
2. panthers |
5-8 |
3-1 |
+375 |
|
3. Hawks |
5-8 |
1-3 |
+1400 |
|
4. Saints |
4-9 |
1-3 |
+4000 |
As you can see, Tampa Bay has a slight lead in this divisional race and is currently the betting favorite to finish the year as NFC South champions. It’s worth noting that the Bucs currently hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the New Orleans Saints thanks to their season sweep and have a win over the Falcons, whom they will face again in the regular season finale. Tampa Bay also has one more game left against the Panthers, who beat them in Week 7.
If Carolina pulls off another win over the Bucs when they travel to Raymond James Stadium in Week 17, they’d own the head-to-head tiebreaker. If they don’t, the upcoming NFC South crown tiebreaker would be the best record within the division. That could come into play here, especially with the Bucs having games left against the Panthers and Falcons, along with Carolina and Atlanta already splitting their season series.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s playoff projections, Tampa Bay currently has a 65% chance of winning the division coming out of Week 14. Carolina has a 31% chance, Atlanta has a 4% chance, and New Orleans sits in the rearguard with a minute of 0.7% chance. of win
Buccaneers remaining schedule
|
week 15 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) |
|
week 16 |
arizona cardinals |
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ) |
|
week 17 |
carolina panthers |
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) |
|
week 18 |
atlanta falcons |
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA) |
The Buccaneers have the seventh-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, based on their opponents’ combined winning percentage. However, they are looking at the toughest game left on the schedule this week when they host the Cincinnati Bengals, who have posted five straight wins and are looking to jump up the AFC playoff standings. The Bengals are in the top 10 in DVOA this season and boast a top-five offense in the NFL that could be tough for Tampa Bay to keep up with. If the Bucs leave this game, their chances of winning the division drop to 57% without even considering the other matchups within the division.
In Week 16, they may have caught a breather when Kyler Murray suffered what is feared to be a torn ACL in Monday’s loss to the Patriots, so it’s likely they’ll face Colt McCoy in that confrontation. Then the final stretch of the season could determine the fate of their season, as Tampa Bay faces back-to-back divisional opponents in the Panthers and Falcons. If Carolina wins, they would claim the head-to-head tiebreaker and if Atlanta beat them in Week 18, they would drop to .500 against division opponents.
However, if Tampa Bay goes 3-1 down this stretch, they will be in prime position to win the NFC South. Even if they’re 2-2, but with those two wins against the Panthers and Falcons, they’d clinch the division.
Panthers Remaining Schedule
| Week | Adversary | Location |
|---|---|---|
| week 15 | pittsburgh steelers | Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) |
| week 16 | Detroit Lions | Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) |
| week 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) |
| week 18 | New Orleans Saints | Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA) |
Carolina actually owns the easiest remaining schedule in the NFC South and the fifth-easiest in the entire NFL. In Week 15, they may face a Steelers team that doesn’t have Kenny Pickett (concussion) and could be starting Mason Rudolph or Mitchell Trubisky. With that QB uncertainty looming, the Panthers are 2.5-point favorites over Pittsburgh.
If they won that game and Tampa Bay lose their Week 15 matchup with the Bengals, they would have a 45% chance of winning the NFC South with the Bucs’ odds dropping to 50%. Perhaps the toughest matchup Carolina has left is against the Lions in Week 16. Detroit has been one of the best teams in the NFL as they look to crash the playoff party with a wild card berth.
While that matchup could certainly result in a loss, as long as the Panthers stay within a game of the Bucs before their Week 17 matchup, they’ll have a chance to top them thanks to that win earlier this season. However, a win over the Bucs would not automatically clinch them the division if Tampa Bay goes 2-1 in their remaining games. Under that circumstance, the Panthers would enter a must-win game against the Saints in Week 18 that would clinch their first division title since 2015.
Falcons remaining schedule
| Week | Adversary | Location |
|---|---|---|
| week 15 | pittsburgh steelers | Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) |
| week 16 | Detroit Lions | Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) |
| week 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) |
| week 18 | New Orleans Saints | Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA) |
Atlanta has a long shot of returning to this playoff picture and they will look to make that push. as they turn Rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder out of the Week 14 bye. However, they will need to get a win this week against the Saints if they are to stay in contention and surpass their 1-3 record against NFC South opponents. If they were to lose that game (they are currently 4 point losers), one scenario where they would still make the playoffs is if they won, if the Bucs dropped their remaining four games and the Panthers dropped their next two, but they beat their remaining division opponents. That would take Atlanta to an 8-9 record, which would put them a game ahead of the Panthers.
Saints remaining schedule
| Week | Adversary | Location |
|---|---|---|
| week 15 | pittsburgh steelers | Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) |
| week 16 | Detroit Lions | Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) |
| week 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) |
| week 18 | New Orleans Saints | Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA) |
New Orleans just needs a lot of help to make the postseason right now. Even if they did win and we didn’t touch anything else within the division, they would only have a 19% chance of winning the NFC South.
Other than winning, one scenario in which they make the playoffs is if Tampa Bay goes 1-3 down the stretch with losses to the Bengals, Panthers and Falcons. Then the Panthers would have to go 2-2 with losses to the Steelers and Saints, and wins against the Lions and Bucs. Under that circumstance, even if the Falcons went 3-1 in the last month, but that loss comes this week to the Saints, New Orleans would make the playoffs.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
Prediction
As boring as it sounds, we have the Buccaneers winning this division, almost by default. Even if they hit .500 over the last month, as long as they can beat the Panthers at home in Week 17, that will be enough for them to realistically clinch the NFC South for the second year in a row. That being said, having the Panthers at +375 is a good value at this point in the season as things could easily turn in their favor. Whoever comes out of this division, though, will in all likelihood just be a sacrificial lamb for whatever playoff squad comes into their building (probably the Dallas Cowboys).
