by Week 7 got off to a strong start with the Cardinals beating the Saints 42-34 in DeAndre Hopkins’ season debut. It was the highest-scoring Thursday Night Football contest since the 2017 41-39 Rams-49ers classic, yet that’s not what most NFL fans were talking about after the latest snap.
While the game was underway, news broke that Carolina had traded Christian McCaffrey to San Francisco for a slew of draft picks. Adding a dynamic, versatile talent like CMC to a Kyle Shanahan offense that also has Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk confirms that the 49ers are in this core group and have their sights set on a Super Bowl.
Who knows how much of McCaffrey we’ll see this weekend, but it’s certainly an added layer of intrigue to the most anticipated matchup of the week against the Chiefs.
In addition to that matchup, the Titans and Colts are competing for the second time in three weeks, the Giants are 5-1 underdogs against the Jaguars and the Falcons look to improve to 7-0 against the spread (ATS) when they visit the Bengals.
Three of the top four teams in the standings, and the defending champions, are byes this week, with the Philadelphia Eagles 6-0, Buffalo Bills 5-1, Minnesota Vikings 5-1 and Los Angeles Rams 3-3 at rest.
Let’s take a look at the Week 7 board with betting lines, totals and tidbits, plus weekly picks and combinations.
Publisher’s note: Gambling problems are not just about losing money. They occur on a continuum and can affect a person’s entire life. For more information on developing a healthy relationship with gambling and finding supportive resources, click here.
SPREADS AND TOTALS
Cleveland Browns (+6.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.0) vs. Carolina Panthers (+13.0) | Over/Under: 38.5
Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) | Over/Under: 47.5
Detroit Lions (+6.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) | Over/Under: 48.5
New York Giants (+3.0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.0) | Over/Under: 43.5
Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (-2.5) | Over/Under: 41.5
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) vs. Washington Commanders (+4.5) | Over/Under: 41.5
New York Jets (+1.0) vs. Denver Broncos (-1.0) | Over/Under: 37.5
Houston Texans (+7.0) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-7.0) | Over/Under: 45.5
Seattle Seahawks (+5.0) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-5.0) | Over/Under: 50.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) | Over/Under: 48.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (-7.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
Chicago Bears (+7.5) vs. New England Patriots (-7.5) | Over/Under: 39.5
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The Ravens have only fallen behind by a combined 120 seconds in games this season.
Carolina will start with QB PJ Walker and RBs D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard against a solid Bucs defense.
The Falcons are 6-0 ATS while the Bengals have covered in four straight games; The Atlanta Minors are 7-1 after winning outright (they beat the 49ers last week).
Dak Prescott returns for the Cowboys; Dallas is 55-33 with Prescott starting. They welcome a Lions team coming off a bye that will have RB D’Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown back in their lineup.
Patrick Mahomes will make his 70th career start in Week 7 against the 49ers.
Most QB wins in first 70 starts
Super Bowl eraKen Stabler (55)
patrick mahomes (54)
Tom Brady (52)
Roger Staubach (52)#KingdomOfBosses @bosses @ProFootballHOF— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) October 19, 2022
The Giants are 5-1 both outright and ATS, while the Jaguars are 4-9 ATS in their most recent 13 home games since 2021.
Tennessee has beaten Indianapolis in four straight and five of the last six, including 24-17 in Week 4.
Taylor Heinicke replaces Carson Wentz in Washington; Heinicke went 7-8 in his 15 starts in 2021.
The Broncos are 5-1 under this season and their matchup with the Jets has a week low total of 37.5. The Jets are the most popular play with the crowd this week with the line shifting a couple of points in the direction of New York.
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Las Vegas is 1-2 ATS as a favorite and Houston is 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Tua Tagovailoa is back as the starter for the Dolphins when they play the Steelers.
The Chargers and Seahawks have met only five times in the last 20 years.
Chicago and New England don’t see each other often either, but when they’ve met over the past 20 years, the Pats have dominated, averaging 35 points per game over the last five meetings.
MIKEY J’S CARD…
(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll share a few picks for the Sunday/Monday board and keep track of my record, so you can go on or fade responsibly throughout the season. Overall record 2022 to date: 37-47)
ATS Favorites (9-12): Jaguars -3.0, Bengals -6.5, Packers -4.5
Underdog ATS (11-7): Colts +2.5, 49ers +2.5, Seahawks +5.0
Overs (4-10): NYG/JAX 43.5, ATL/CIN 47.5
Under (6-9): DET/DAL 48.5, HOU/LV 45.5, SEA/ALC 50.5
Moneyline Dogs (7-9): Colts, Jets
The most obvious lineup this week is Giants-Jaguars. Considering how these teams have performed in the standings and ATS so far this season, you’d think the Giants would be the favorites even on the road. The public seems to agree since everyone is in favor of the Giants, so I have no hesitation in choosing the Jags.
THE WEEKLY RIDLEY
(Falcons star WR Calvin Ridley was suspended for the entire 2022 campaign for gambling on games. The NFL concluded that he placed three multi-stage accumulator bets (three-, five-, and eight-game parlays) that included the victory of the Falcons. Every week throughout the regular season we’ll try to collect three levels of Ridley-inspired combo combinations. 2022 record: 3-3)
Thankfully, Ridley Parlay has got it right every time the Falcons have won this season, slightly making up for my poor record for six weeks. Last week, Atlanta beat San Francisco and both Los Angeles teams also had wins to cash in Tier 1. This week we’re getting a little more aggressive using three dogs as a base and going from there.
Ridley Parlay Level 1 (+1350): Falcons (+230), Colts (+120), Jets (+100)
Ridley Parlay Level 2 (+2260): Falcons (+230), Colts (+120), Jets (+100), Dolphins (-350), Patriots (-380)
Ridley Parlay Level 3 (+6780): Falcons (+230), Colts (+120), Jets (+100), Dolphins (-350), Patriots (-380), Ravens (-280), Raiders (-310), Jaguars (-160)
Ridley’s Weekly Confidence Level: Bass. The Bengals have been playing better in recent weeks and the Falcons are struggling to get to QB, which could see Joe Burrow put up a nice stat on Sunday.
(2022 odds and trends via Covers, moneyline odds via Bet365 as of Friday and subject to change)
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