T. Gerakis (Marc): The danger of a loose vote – A cooperative government is difficult, not impossible

By | April 29, 2023

HE loose vote he is the main danger For him SOUTHWEST. The scenario for a part of the voters to rest from the image of the widening gap with SYRIZA and not go to vote on May 21. Even if the percentage is small, it can defeat the goal of self-sufficiency, she points out. Marc’s boss, Th. Gerakis.

He sees this moment as hard -both numerically and politically- but not impossible, he scenarios for cooperation governmentssince everything will be judged by the data after the first vote, he talks about the unclear messages sent by SYRIZA and PASOK, which are costing them, while he believes that the “Demeter” hurts the Varoufakis party. Of 4.2% after Tempi, now moves to 3.6%. “His supporters of him don’t seem to agree with the closed banks scenario, they do support it, but for other reasons,” he says characteristically.

Interview with Giorgos Fintikakis

Where is the image attributed to this latest round of opinion polls, where ND recovers, SYRIZA remains stagnant, their difference is around 6 points, while a defeated government hardly seems to emerge?

Political messages, to reach citizens, must be accompanied by some conditions. HE first, messages should be simple and understandable. HE second, so as not to leave misunderstandings and ambiguities. HE Tuesday The premise is that the message makes sense, that is, that it is accompanied by an essential governance proposal. In this sense, the general principle says that the political forces that send simple and clear messages have an advantage.

Obviously in this electoral contest, the message his SOUTHWEST it is also simple and cleanregardless of whether one agrees with it or not. The messages of the other parties face ambiguities and various problems.

in your case SYRIZAcorrectly Tsipras initially sent the message his progressive However, governance when the main partners in such a collaboration, such as PASOK and Varoufakis, diverge from, distance themselves from, or outright deny the original proposal, then it appears to lack substance.

The same thing happened with his message. N. Androulakis for collaborations but with Prime Minister one third person, neither Mitsotakis nor Tsipras, who, as the polls have shown, does not find acceptance in the electorate. It does not help PASOK and its leader. We see this in the responses to both the specific question and the intention to vote, where there is a small, gradual but continuous drop in the PASOK percentages. From the 15% it had when Androulakis was elected the new leader of PASOK, today it is around 9%. In Marc’s latest poll, the party loses half a point compared to the previous one.

in conclusionhe blurred messages cost SYRIZA and to PASOK. Creative ambiguity is often a necessary part of political discourse, when a large section of the electorate wants cooperation with ND, another with SYRIZA, and a third without any, but the reality of the numbers shows that it has not worked.

Is there a scenario of a cooperative government from the first round, based on the numbers?

Totals are displayed hardhowever not impossible. One 46%adding the percentages SOUTHWEST and PASOK It is very difficult, but not impossible. Correspondingly difficult, but not impossible, it seems like a sum above 46% for SYRIZAhe PASOK and day 25. At the moment, the alliances seem difficult, both numerically and politically, although after the elections, according to the data, the parties may review their current position.

How feasible is the self-sufficiency scenario?

Obviously it is not an easy task, but it is not something that is in the realm of the imagination either. many will depend of result his first ballot. He is one feasible electoral aim for SOUTHWEST. The intention to vote includes 32.1%while if we had included the estimate of votes in the last poll, we would have given the ND to 3. 4%. It is a percentage that gives foundation hopes towards the goal of self-sufficiency.

However, both ND and SYRIZA are now close to 70% in terms of support. And this is also the reason why we see a small increase in SYRIZA, because its mobilization is also increasing. It’s just that ND seems to be making more profit than other parties.

So, what is the most critical thing for ND, after and after this new round of polls, three weeks from the polls?

HE loose vote No doubt. HE danger a portion votersto rest again from the poll image of the widening gap with SYRIZA and not going to vote on May 21st. It is one existing scenario. Even if this percentage of voters is not large, however, it may prove capable of hindering or even subverting ND’s goal of self-sufficiency.

In the case of Mr. Varoufakis, is the “Dimitra” plan finally working, in his favor or not?

before Tempe, all surveys had day 25 except Parliament, with percentages 2.7%-2.9%. Its increase began to register after the tragedy, expressing to a large extent the so-called anti-system current. A month ago, we registered Mr. Varoufakis’s party at 4.2%, however, in our last poll, we found it at 3.6%.

I venture to make a working case, that the discussion and all the noise around the “Demetra” plan did not favor it. That is, any benefits you received from him antisystemic The space is not connected to the debate on the banks, but is an option against the big parties and the system.

Today we find that the uptrend that was present on the 25th after Tempi stops. He plan “Dimitra” Opera quite negatively for him. His supporters do not seem to agree with the closed banks scenario, they support it, but for other reasons.

Let’s go to the undecided. Are the approximately 500,000 voters, that 10%-11% found in all the polls, the ones who will judge the result?

Not in its basic characteristics, but in its details. He undecided cant of cancel he result and the order of the parts, but they can increase or decrease them several and of course it is a critical mass for the sums.

here is one myththat he undecided is to a great extent young woman old. It’s not valid. Most of them are undecided. centrists Voters and Solares belong to all categories.

Looking at the origin of the party in survey his bagassethe largest group, namely the 23.5%comes from SOUTHWESTwhile from the SYRIZA he 18% So he I governed faction here maintains a theory advantage in the attempt to recover them, without this implying in advance that it will succeed.

To the question “between which options are you hesitating”, the 28% answers between SOUTHWEST and another option, 23% between SYRIZA and another option, while the percentage between PASOK and another option is similar.

What does this show us? That theoretically always, the PASOK he has chance get some good percentages out of them undecided, since we found it present in two tanks. In which voters vacillate between PASOK and ND and in which they move between PASOK and SYRIZA.

Do individual questions for undecided help us understand more?

In individual questions, such as e.g. “which government do you prefer”, the 9% prefer self-sufficient government SOUTHWESTwhile the 5.9% one party government SYRIZA. In addition, a government of cooperation with the ND body prefers it. 27.8%, while a coalition government with SYRIZA at its core, 22.3%. Adding the percentages, an independent ND government and a cooperation government with the ND core give 36.8%, while an autonomous SYRIZA government and a cooperation government with the SYRIZA core give 28.2. %.

It is interesting that in previous elections, the largest percentage in the undecided mix were voters with a SYRIZA background. Now, that’s not the case. Therefore, it seems that the undecided will be distributed proportionally between the parties, with ND and PASOK having a relative advantage.

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