The strong stench of bis examartain

By | May 1, 2023

By Apostolos Manthos

It seems that the “Greek” has not cared. He wants to try again or worse still wants to smell the stench of the 2015-2016 biennium again. In other words, the time when we appeared daily in the global media as the laughingstock of the Eurozone. At the moment when all the Greeks were walking around with the humiliating GREXIT label around their necks, they were lining up at the ATMs to withdraw the insane amount of 60 euros, they saw their money locked up in the “closed” banks and they felt it on their skin. what the words economic limitation, economic annihilation and economic destruction mean. And that saying of “cutting off” deposits had become synonymous with terror. At the time when we walked around with drachmas in our pockets “without a care” singing Samantha Fox: “Touch me, touch me now…”.

The whole current scene is somewhat analogous to removing a sock from a sweaty foot, smelling the intense ball but not getting fed up. Don’t settle for just that. You really want to bring your sock to your nose in order to closely “enjoy” what has already spread throughout the room. There, try again.

From the sounds of it, the “Greek” likes to waste himself on Demeter, Zeus, Odysseus, Calliope, Poppi, etc. “I will close, I will liquidate, I will nationalize, I will print…”. Words from other dark years of democracy. But the bad thing is that the “Greek” of the mistake, of the equitelism, of the recidivist, of the roufa-cafedouba, of the killer of the neighbor’s goat, he or I or nobody, has not understood that this time, in addition to the possible financial suicide of the country there is also a rather restless neighbor to the east framed in a fragile new global geopolitical environment where turf war ambitions thrive. A neighbor with a strong war industry who will think more and more about testing his products on the backs of our children since unfortunately they will be the ones who will go to the front. A “hungry” neighbor who eagerly seeks the slightest crack of weakness in us to put his sultan’s plan into motion. That’s why “Hellenes”… “To bis esamaretan t’ this not wise”.

Turning to the Athens Stock Exchange, the General Index, clearly disturbed by the parade of “old” names, has lost the support of 1,100 units. You see, the market gives Dimitra more weight than ratings agency S&P’s upgrade of the outlook on Greek debt to positive from stable, the huge success of creating an even marginal primary surplus by 2022 amid energy, inflation and geopolitical crisis and of course the significant increase compared to the goal set in the execution of the State budget for the first quarter of 2023 with the existence of a primary surplus of 3,000 million euros of the 28 million euros that were expected. Schematically, the General Index has fallen below the limit of 1,100 units (the article was written last Wednesday) testing the strength of the next support area of ​​1,080 units. A potential break down of this area will also open the way to the 1,055-1,020 range. A negative development so far is the creation of a second local peak at a level below 1,141 units.

In the FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap Index, the loss of support at 2,670 has caused a rapid breakout towards the area where the Fibo 34-day SMA crosses between 2,610 and 2,600. A possible break below this short-term moving average will turn on the light at the first support point of 2,560. Here too, the second local lower spike of weakness in the index’s upward continuation is seen as a negative.

In the Banking Index, the short-term outlook seems clearer with its general refusal to exceed the 845 point level, which is the figure corresponding to the 1,100 points of the General Index and the 2,670 points of the FTSE 25. The non-splitting of 845 points strengthened the seller’s camp by pushing the indicator above the “S” support line at around 785 points. The confirmed bearish bypass of 785 points in the daily closing price will give bearish ground towards the zone of 750 to 734 points, ruining the attempt of the banks to stabilize at price levels from where they can start a new upward movement. Levels such as 1.30 euros for Eurobank shares, 4.70 euros for Banco Nacional, 1.20 euros for Alpha Bank and 2.20 euros for Piraeus.

Finally, in terms of the FTSE/ATHEX Mid Cap Index, it appears to be “finishing” schematically within the 1650-1630 resistance zone and just below the long-term bearish pressure swing “W” that defines the top of the uptrend. movement in the last decade. As the indicator struggles to write values ​​above 1,650, it will declare itself tired by cultivating a pullback towards the 1,560 point.

* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis and investment strategy

**Republished from the Kefalio newspaper

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